Thursday, September 25, 2008

Martha and her huge wiener

I love this woman. Posing here with her huge wiener. You write the punchline - there are hundreds.

Just the fact that she allowed the picture to be taken, tells me she's a good sport.

This post contains the word "wiener" and a womans name. I'll get thousands of hits.

The world is a sick place.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Math Model Shows McCain Ahead By As Many As 27 Electoral College Votes

A new approach to determining which candidate will win the most electoral votes in the U.S. Presidential race factors in lessons learned from the 2004 election and uses sophisticated math modeling. The research will be presented at the annual meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS®).

As of September 16, the margin in electoral votes could be as high as 282.8 votes for Senator John McCain against 255.2 for Senator Barack Obama, depending on the forecasting scenario.

Operations researcher Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, along with a group of students and collaborators at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, created, a math model that dynamically forecasts the outcome of the election.

Prof. Jacobson and colleagues will present their findings at the INFORMS annual meeting, which takes place in Washington, D.C. at the Marriott Waldman Park Hotel and Omni Shoreham Hotel from October 13 – 15, less than three weeks before the election. Over 4,000 analysts and experts in analytics are expected to attend. Information is at

Jacobson's model applies a mathematical model to state polling data, using a dynamic programming algorithm to forecast electoral results.

"The results from the 2000 and 2004 presidential election suggested that it can be difficult to predict the winner of the presidential election based on popular vote," says Jacobson. "In fact, it is possible that the popular vote and the Electoral College vote can lead to significantly different results."

Jacobson's model employs Bayesian estimators (which help scientists make decisions when conditions are uncertain) to determine the probability that a candidate will win each state. He obtains state polling data from Rasmussen Reports, the Quinnipiac University Poll, and SurveyUSA. State-by-state probabilities are then used in a dynamic programming algorithm to determine a probability distribution for the number of Electoral College votes that each candidate will win in the 2008 presidential election.

Professor Jacobson believes that this model provides a more realistic method of predicting the results. In 2004, when most other polls showed Kerry with a clear edge, his model consistently showed a Bush victory.

"We take into account 'safe' states— states that each candidate is basically guaranteed to win," says Jacobson. "In 2004, once you took into account Bush's 'safe' states, he had a much narrower gap to close to get to 270 electoral votes than Kerry."

In the model, a safe state is one in which the candidate has an 85% chance or greater of winning.


Monday, September 15, 2008

The best campaign photo yet this season.

A woman gets her picture taken beside the table of the Obamas and the Bidens at Yankee Kitchen Family Restaurant, during a campaign stop in Boardman, Ohio. HAHA. I like this woman. She literally crawled there so as not to disturb them. Clearly, they have no idea she's there.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Dress like an idiot. It's Fashion Week.

These looks are all brought to you by designer Thom Brown at fashion week in New York. I like the tutu, the "pants low" & the "pants high" look. My fav is clearly that first guy, sagging.

Mccain still playing Barracuda.

LEBANON, Ohio (CNN) – The rock band "Heart" may have asked John McCain and Sarah Palin stop playing their song "Barracuda" at their rallies, but the campaign is apparently paying no heed.

The track — played at the Republican National Convention in honor of the Vice Presidential nominee, who earned the nickname "Sarah Barracuda" playing high school basketball in Alaska — was pumped through the streets of Lebanon, Ohio on Tuesday morning at an outdoor rally before the GOP ticket showed up.

When the song was played after Palin's convention speech last week, the band members quickly requested that McCain and Palin pull the plug.

But the McCain camp said last week that it had paid for and obtained all necessary licenses before using the song.

That's the beginning, middle & end of the story right there. Ascap & BMI fees have been paid by the Republicans. The appearances are public performances. The songwriters have been paid for the performances. What's the beef? Ann & Nancy are Obama supporters? Tread lightly girls. You run the risk of being "Dixie Chicked."

Artists can't pick & choose where & how their songs are used as long as they're paid. Like it or not, Heart songs may be played on loudspeakers at gatherings they don't approve of. The artists don't have to be notified. They don't have to sign off or give permission. Legally, it's open & shut & why it's a story at all is beyond me.

Radio stations pay these fees too. Maybe a station they don't like will play Heart. There are restaurants that pay the fees. Maybe a restaurant serving food they don't like will play Heart.

Be flattered anyone's playing Barracuda. Besides the campaign appearances, all Heart has going for them are 3 share radio stations.

Monday, September 08, 2008

Aliens shoot at US missle. I love this stuff.

Olbermann demoted.

MSNBC rode the left-wing thing to improved (still low, but improved) ratings, but there's a limit to how much Keith Olbermann or Chris Matthews one can take.

Besides, Tom Brokaw and Brian Williams appear to be openly revolting against appearing on the cable network, and everyone's at everyone else's throat, a condition that seems to follow Olbermann from network to network. The result: Olbermann and Matthews have been pulled from anchoring election coverage and debates.

Olbermann's weird "apology" for MSNBC airing the 9/11 tribute film at the Republican convention was the last straw; they're replacing him with David Gregory for debate duties. But they should have seen this coming the moment they hired Olbermann.

Friday, September 05, 2008

George S. McCain

In a slip of the lip Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey cast Tennessee's 55 votes at the Republican National Convention for "George S. McCain."

An auctioneer by profession, Ramsey spoke in a sing-song voice bidding up the number of votes to be cast for Tennessee . At the end, he declared, "Tennessee casts 55 votes for George S. McCain."

The ironic thing is that, back in 1988, Lamar Alexander, who was chairman of the delegation to the convention then, nominated 'Robert Bush' for president.

The contenders, the mask, and the one in a million picture

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

*BULLETIN BULLETIN* Sarah Palin doin' TV Sports.

Who does Sarah Palin look like?

Who does Sarah Palin look like? So far, callers to the show say: Julia Louis Dryfuss, Tina Fey & Sally Jesse Raphael. I say, Mariska Hargatay from "Law & Order."
Lemme know in the comments.