I know I'm part of the problem. I too, broadcast weather forecasts. I'm not professionally trained. I don't have an AMA seal or a NOAA seal - or even like seals (as in Sea World.) I mostly rely on the Weather Channel & Weather Service forecasts. Often, they're different. On those days, I split the difference and "my" forecast becomes a meld of the two. Sometimes, I'll check Accuweather - and my forecast will be a consensus of three forecasts.
The forecast for my area today is snow & ice. One forecast says 6-12 inches. One says, 8-12 & one says 10-20 inches!!! Everyone agrees we'll have ice before the snow event. Take my word for it - even with those dire predictions of snow, there is a 50% chance - we'll get considerably less. There have been days I cried "Snow" - and it didn't manage even a flurry. There have been days I predicted sunshine - and it snowed 9 inches. On those days I feel as if I've misled people. I get discouraged, and wonder, "Maybe I should have looked at just two more forecasts and broadcast the sum of five forecasts."
Don't let your weatherman or the latest Doppler technology fool you. You're as likely as anyone to know what the weather is going to do - if you stick your head out a window.