Thursday, November 30, 2006

Weathermen are full of it.

I know I'm part of the problem. I too, broadcast weather forecasts. I'm not professionally trained. I don't have an AMA seal or a NOAA seal - or even like seals (as in Sea World.) I mostly rely on the Weather Channel & Weather Service forecasts. Often, they're different. On those days, I split the difference and "my" forecast becomes a meld of the two. Sometimes, I'll check Accuweather - and my forecast will be a consensus of three forecasts.

The forecast for my area today is snow & ice. One forecast says 6-12 inches. One says, 8-12 & one says 10-20 inches!!! Everyone agrees we'll have ice before the snow event. Take my word for it - even with those dire predictions of snow, there is a 50% chance - we'll get considerably less. There have been days I cried "Snow" - and it didn't manage even a flurry. There have been days I predicted sunshine - and it snowed 9 inches. On those days I feel as if I've misled people. I get discouraged, and wonder, "Maybe I should have looked at just two more forecasts and broadcast the sum of five forecasts."

Don't let your weatherman or the latest Doppler technology fool you. You're as likely as anyone to know what the weather is going to do - if you stick your head out a window.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kansas City forecasters backpedal on foot-of-snow predictions

Everybody calm down.

Local forecasters spent the morning backpedaling from earlier stark predictions that the metro was in for a foot-deep blanket of snow by tonight as the area’s looming winter storm began to pull to the south.

The National Weather Service still had a heavy snowfall warning in place for Kansas City at 10 a.m., but area meteorologists had scaled back expected accumulation totals from imposing levels to — at most — 1 to 6 inches.

The heaviest snow locally was expected in Harrisonville. Downtown now faces anywhere from 1 inch to 3 or 4.

Communities around the Lake of the Ozarks are now expected to suffer the worst the storm has to offer.

KMBC-TV said the snow may not even arrive until after the evening rush hour, potentially giving motorists the same relatively smooth trip tonight that they experienced this morning.

Local police agencies reported few wrecks, despite ice-glazed side streets.

Carmen Piletto said...

Officially 5 1/2 inches. Nowhere near a foot. I see what you mean.

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